Rate Lock Advisory

Sunday, July 6th

This week brings us little that is expected to influence mortgage rates with no monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled for release. The calendar just has a couple of Treasury auctions and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting scheduled in addition to the weekly unemployment figures Thursday morning. This leaves outside factors such as Fed speeches, tariff news and political headlines to drive trading some days.

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Bonds


Market Closed

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Dow


Market Closed

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NASDAQ


Market Closed

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Relevant activities are limited to just two days of the week. They begin Wednesday afternoon with two scheduled events that we will be watching. First will be the 10-year Treasury Note auction results announcement at 1:00 PM ET. These types of sales typically don't directly impact mortgage rates but can affect the broader bond market that leaks into mortgage bonds. 10-year Notes will be sold Wednesday, followed by 30-year Bonds Thursday. If investor demand is strong for these securities, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading midweek. However, weak interest in the sales could lead to bond selling and a possible increase in mortgage rates. If there is a reaction to the sales, they will come during early afternoon hours those days.

Medium


Unknown


FOMC Meeting Minutes

Next up are the minutes from the June 17-18th FOMC meeting. They will be posted at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, making this another afternoon event for rates. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise that we did not get from the post-meeting statement, revised economic projections and press conference last month. Bond traders are looking for feelings about inflation and individual member thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move, which some analysts expected to come at this month’s meeting before Friday’s Employment report changed that.

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Unknown


none

Overall, we are expecting to see a fairly calm week for rates, at least compared to other recent weeks unless something unexpected happens. Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for rates while no day stands out as a good candidate for calmest. Even though there is little happening this week, it still would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future just in case something hits the newswires.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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